Crime has emerged as one of the defining issues of the 2026 Victorian state election.
Polls consistently rank it among voters’ top three concerns, alongside the cost of living. Youth crime in particular has been a recurring focus of news coverage, talkback radio, and parliamentary debate.
Every major party has built part of its campaign around crime:
- Labor and the Coalition both promise tougher bail laws, more police and stronger consequences, with less emphasis on prevention.
- One Nation goes further on policing and penalties, pledging to recruit 10,000 veterans to bolster police numbers and to toughen penalties for young offenders.
- The Greens take a different approach, pledging $1 billion for prevention, crisis outreach and services that address the root causes of crime.
The election result will shape whether Victoria extends, keeps or rethinks its tougher laws, just as their effects are starting to be seen.
The past two years have brought rapid change. After a sharp rise in recorded crime through 2024 and into 2025, driven largely by theft, Victoria introduced what the government describes as the toughest bail laws in the country, followed by ‘Adult Time for Violent Crime’ laws that came into full effect in February 2026. During this period, Victoria also became the first state to raise the minimum age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12 years old.
In the 12 months to June 2026, however, the crime rate fell 3.8% and carjackings fell by a quarter. Whether tougher laws are responsible, and at what cost, is contested. Despite this fall, Victoria’s crime rate remains well above where it was a few years ago, and children remain heavily over-represented in some of the most serious offences, including robberies, aggravated burglaries, carjackings and home invasions.
Beneath the headlines and statistics lie harder questions:
- Can we hold young people accountable for serious harm without making reoffending more likely?
- How should we weigh community safety against the presumption of innocence when deciding who is held before trial?
- Why does youth crime attract so much attention when most crime is committed by adults?
- When evidence, experience and fear of crime point us in different directions, who decides how Victoria responds?
As Victorians prepare to vote on 28 November, this conversation is a timely opportunity to step back from the campaign, consider what we want from those we elect, and what part we can play as citizens.
This Folio Conversation with Angela Higginson and Abraham Kuol will help us explore how we might keep young people out of the criminal justice system and keep our communities safe.
This event is part of a collection of events and curated content on the theme ‘Victoria Votes’, which examines the issues at stake in the 2026 Victorian state election.
Conversation Leader - Angela Higginson
Angela is a associate professor and quantitative criminologist in QUT’s School of Justice.
One of Angela’s key research interests is in the use of systematic reviews and meta-analysis to inform evidence based public policy in policing and crime control. Much of her research has examined the effectiveness (or potential for harm) of policing strategies.
Angela’s current work focuses on the experiences of young marginalised and minoritized Australians, including experiences of youth hate crime victimisation, perceptions of policing, and offending behaviours, and includes the design, implementation, and analysis of the Australian Youth Safety Survey, a multi-wave online survey focusing on young Australians’ experiences of identity, diversity, and safety.
Angela is co-Chair and Editor (Crime and Justice) of Campbell Systematic Reviews (Q1), an Editorial Board member of Journal of Experimental Criminology (Q1), an advisor on evidence synthesis to ANROWS – Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, co-developer of the Global Policing Database, and the President of the Australian and New Zealand Society of Criminology.
Conversation Leader - Abraham Kuol
Abraham spent the first seven years of his life in Kakuma Refugee Camp in Kenya. His family came to Australia as refugees, and this year he is Victoria’s Young Australian of the Year.
He is an Associate Research Fellow and PhD Candidate in Criminology at Deakin University, where his research explores the post-settlement challenges of African Australians with a focus on justice system contact. His research interests include youth violence, risk, and protective factors for offending, and culturally and linguistically diverse young people.
His work with the 2025 Westpac Social Change Fellowship has seen Abraham travel to countries in Europe and the UK to compare their justice responses to those in Victoria.
Abraham provides expert guidance and insights to Victorian state government departments, local councils, mainstream community organisations, and culture-based organisations in the youth justice space. He is also a leader in Melbourne’s African-Australian community. He understands the power of sport to create positive change, and he mentors at-risk young people in team sports programs.
Event Format
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Folio Conversations explore the big issues of our times in a welcoming and trusted setting.
These unique small-group gatherings:
- connect people from all walks of life with inspiring thinkers and doers
- prioritise open, honest and inclusive dialogue
- limit seat numbers so everyone can meaningfully participate
- encourage curiosity, active listening, and sharing of ideas, perspectives and experiences.
Each conversation aims to help us better understand the issues, each other, and the world around us.
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