Over the past three months, Australia has experienced sharp—and at times conflicting—shifts in electricity and oil prices, making it harder to pinpoint what’s driving costs and where prices might go next.
In mid‑January, forecasts suggested electricity prices could climb by as much as 24% by July, following the end of government subsidies in 2025. Then, in late February, the outbreak of the Iran war triggered a surge in global energy markets, with Australian oil prices rising by more than 40%, with no clear timeline for prices to fall. Yet despite these pressures, electricity prices are now expected to fall by up to 10% from July as more renewable energy comes online.
These developments are unfolding against the backdrop of a major transformation in Australia’s energy system—one of the most significant changes to our economy and infrastructure in generations.
Central to this transition is a move away from coal. For decades, coal has underpinned Australia’s electricity supply and still accounts for around 60% of power generation today. But by 2050, it is expected to be fully phased out and replaced by renewable energy.
To drive this shift, the federal government has set ambitious targets. By 2030, it aims for 82% of Australia’s electricity to come from renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydro—up from roughly one‑third today. Supporters argue the transition is essential to cut emissions, reduce energy costs over time, and secure Australia’s long‑term energy future. Critics contend that an over‑reliance on renewables will drive up costs and is already creating challenges for regional communities.
Meanwhile, in Europe, rising oil prices linked to the Iran war have reignited debate about whether nuclear power should play a larger role in the energy mix. In Australia, the nuclear question was effectively sidelined after the 2025 election—but should it be revisited now? Or is the better path to double down on renewable energy and accelerate the transition already underway?
This timely Folio Conversation with Bruce Mountain—Inaugural Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre (VEPC)—will explore Australia’s energy transition, shed light on the current energy crisis, and consider what lies ahead for households and the economy.
This event is part of a collection of events and curated content on the theme “Energy Shift”, which examines the impacts of Australia’s energy transition.
Conversation Leader - Bruce Mountain
Bruce Mountain is the inaugural Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre. He is a well-known Australian energy economist whose research and advisory work has focussed on the economic regulation of network monopolies, the analysis of retail energy markets, and the design of emission reduction and renewable energy policies. Bruce has been a long-standing advisor to governments, regulators, market participants and interest groups in Australia and internationally. His PhD from Victoria University was on the political economy of energy regulation in Australia, and he has a Bachelor's and a Masters degree in Electrical Engineering from the University of Cape Town and is qualified as a Chartered Management Accountant in England.
Event Details
We will be serving drinks and nibbles from 6pm onwards, with the conversation starting at 6:30pm.
